Pam Peirce

What people want is a peaceful life, freedom from disruptions of their access to the goods they want (heat, cooling, a comfortable bed, plenty of food, etc.) and that their children should have the same. I had planned to analyze these desires carefully, and also to say that I don't think humans, as a species, know how to run an economy based on money such that all of its members have their basic needs met. I still plan to do this, but my plan is interrupted by a strong feeling that there is a target on my back for being an intellectual, a feminist, even for being in favor of following the U.S. Constitution.
      I have been led to undertake a history of tariffs, to try to predict the outcome of the federal administration's foray into these economic weapons. I turned to Chat GPT to find a summary of U.S. tariffs and their results. (Try it—it's free and easy. Ask your economic/ historical questions at chatgpt.com.)
     The U.S had tariffs against England following the War of 1812. Thos tariffs did strengthen U.S manufacturing and reduced reliance on imports. During the Civil War, tariffs helped the North pay for the War, but "hurt Southern farmers that depended on exporting cotton and tobacco."
      Trump claims to admire America's Gilded Age, when there were huge discrepancies between the rich and poor. Tariffs of that era strengthened industry, but retaliatory tariffs hurt farmers who were involved in international trade. In 1922, tariffs helped both industry and farmers, resulting in a booming economy in the 1920s, but strapping Europe, which was trying to pay war debts, and hurting world trade in general. (Many Europeans suffered great privation from WWI until some years after WWII.)
The Smoot-Hawley tariffs, set in 1930 on over 20,000 manufactured goods, resulted in "massive global retaliation" and are credited with worsening the Great Depression.
Trump declared tariffs in his first administration, with mixed results. While they did protect some industries, like steel and aluminum, there were retaliatory tariffs that especially harmed U.S. farmers, "some manufacturing job benefited but others (like auto and tech) suffered." Overall, there were "increased costs and trade disruptions." Also, they "did not significantly reduce the trade deficit with China."
When asked if steep tariffs would rebuild U.S. manufacturing, Chat GPT said while they can help certain industries and create some jobs, they also raise costs, invite retaliation, and do not guarantee large-scale job growth. It also said that tariffs used to work better than they do now. Why is that I asked? It said: the 19th century U.S. economy was largely self-contained, with international trade a much smaller share of the GDP, and had far less dependence on imports. However now, we are "deeply integrated into global trade" and "many nations have strong manufacturing sectors" where business can go. Tariffs may help specific industries, but often lead to "retaliation, supply chain disruption, and higher consumer prices."
The conclusion? Risky business, tariffs, these days, that are not likely to help most MAGA voters. I am back to my original thesis—that humans are not very good at dealing with money economies.

I am angered when I hear politicians cite the price of eggs as an index of inflation. Yes, eggs are very expensive. But they are an exception that has nothing to do with inflation in general. I do not know all of the reasons for general inflation, but I am sure they have to do, in large part, with the economy trying to recover from the Covid 19 crisis, The prices of eggs are high because a virus, bird flu, is leading to the killing of many egg laying hens. By law, if bird flu appears in a flock, it is "culled," a polite term for killing the whole flock.
     "Isn't there a vaccine?" you may ask. Well, yes, there is a vaccine. However, some markets will not buy chickens intended for meat if they have been vaccinated, so the vaccine goes unused. 
     The big fear is that the bird flu virus will mutate such that it can be transmitted human to human. So far, it has only infected humans who work with animals, such as chickens or cows, which can spread the virus to a human. (And domestic cate, which eat infected wild birds, leading to the irony that people may keep their cats inside, not to spare the wild birds, but to protect the cats.) It could happen that the bird flu virus could become transmissible between humans, and then the clamor for using the vaccine would probably outweigh the resistance to using it, however, by then the time would have passed that using the vaccine might prevent human deaths due to human-to-human transmission.
     Trump used the example of the price of eggs in his speech to Congress--blaming it on Biden. I also get fundraising emails from candidates representing the Democratic Party implying that egg prices are a part of a general inflation that the current president cannot bring down. I am equally outraged by both uses, because they depend, for their power, on an emotional response that is not influenced  by facts that explain why eggs are so expensive.
I don't know if the price of eggs went up because some producers, or wholesalers, would go out of business if they didn't raise prices, or if the problem is price gouging, but I do know that egg prices are a special case and that politicians are trying use them for political gain without educating the electorate about bird flu and helping people see the dilemmas it introduces.
(Details of the bird flu situation were recently reported on National Public Radio.)